The F1 Drivers’ Championship Comes Down to Abu Dhabi. But Determining the Winner Won’t Be Simple

For the 32nd time in Formula 1’s history, the Drivers’ Championship—the individual Best in Show, so to speak—will be crowned at the final race of the season. This is not always the case. Some years, drivers garnered enough points over the year to secure the top spot. But this year, the competition will come down to this race this Sunday, under the floodlights of Abu Dhabi’s famed Yas Marina Circuit.

The drivers vying for the W: McLaren’s Lando Norris, who arrives in the UAE at the top of the leaderboard; Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, in second place; and McLaren’s Oscar Piastri, in third. Depending on how they finish, and the math therein (25 points to the winner, 18 to second, 15 to third, and so on), each athlete has paths to victory–with Norris holding the most (we’ll get into the permutations below).

If Norris or Piastri come out on top, it will be the first seasonal victory for either one. This would be a big deal: Verstappen has clinched the Drivers’ Championship every year since 2021, and McLaren hasn’t won since 2008, when multiple-time winner Lewis Hamilton, who now rides for Ferrari, got them there.

If Norris places first, second or third in the Grand Prix, his point accrual will guarantee him the cup. But if Norris places between fourth and seventh, Verstappen will have to come in second place or lower for Norris to to take the season. If Piastri wins the Grand Prix, he’ll need Norris to finish sixth or lower. Verstappen has to make the podium one way or the other. His worst case scenario would be if he places third; Norris would have to be ninth or lower, and Piastri second or below.

The path to victory looks very different for each driver, and their teams will need to make fast, incisive choices to attain it.

McLaren has already won the Constructors’ Championship—the team event, which they took thanks to Norris and Piastri’s strong seasons—and they’ll be especially hungry to get one of their guys to the top, especially after recent gaffes in Las Vegas, where both drivers were disqualified due to a car build issue, and a pitting omission during a safety car slowdown in Doha that pretty much gave Verstappen the win. Had Norris won in Doha, the Drivers’ Championship would already be his.

The safest bet here is still on Norris, and McLaren is doing what they can to secure his title. Piastri can only win the Championship if he places second or better; if he’s in second, Norris needs to be tenth or lower (with Verstappen in fourth or lower), and if he’s in first, as mentioned, Norris needs to be in sixth or lower (with Verstappen placing anyplace—at that point, the point deficit will be too big).

Still, Piastri was the one on track to win in Doha. He posted a caption-less photo of himself on Instagram after the event, which many took as a signal of his frustration. He also led the standings for much of the season. We’ll see how this pans out in a few days time.